Last month the Apple Watch Ultra 2 went official, a year after its predecessor, the original Ultra. With that in mind, you might expect the Apple Watch Ultra 3 to be announced alongside the iPhone 16 generation in September 2024.
That would be a logical assumption, but it might actually be wrong. Renowned Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today says that the company hasn’t started work on the next Apple Watch Ultra yet, and that’s a bad sign.
That’s “unusual,” he says, considering the length of the development cycle. We assume this means that by this time last year, work was already being done on the Ultra 2. According to Kuo, if Apple doesn’t start developing the Ultra 3 by December, it’s “all but confirmed” that we won’t see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024.
Kuo speculates that this may be because Apple needs more time to develop “innovative health management features,” ensure “the manufacturability of new features,” and address issues related to Micro LED manufacturing.
Without the Ultra 3 releasing in 2024, Ultra series shipments are expected to decline about 20-30% next year compared to 2023, and total Apple Watch shipments will decline about 10% annually next to this, down by a total of around 35 million units.
Of course, this is mostly speculation, even if it comes from a reliable source. The thing is, Apple still has about a month to start development on the next Ultra in order for it to hit its usual launch window, so don’t rule it out entirely just yet.
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