Few have noticed that, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, France is going to vote in the presidential elections while a frightening war rages nearby. So tomorrow’s vote and the ballot on April 24 are destined to have a very important influence on the conflict unleashed by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, and more generally against the democratic West.
The French, always a restless and contradictory people, have in their hands not only the future of their country but also that of resistance – it is a word that inevitably returns in all speeches at this stage – to the imperialist and reactionary offensive that is taking place. expressing in Europe with a virulence of my view: are they aware of how big the stakes are this time?
The question is obviously very complex and the Ipsos report on the presidential elections provides many food for thought, but what this poll ultimately predicts is Emmanuel Macron’s second round victory against Marine Le Pen – 54% against 46%, thus a clear victory for the President in office.
In recent days a certain terror has spread among Macron’s supporters and not only due to a recovery of Le Pen, which has evidently benefited from the great decline in popularity of Éric Zemmour, but it is very difficult that this recovery will be enough to stop Macron : and on the other hand, it would not be the first time that circles interested in arousing a climate of electoral uncertainty have moved through the polls.
What is certain is that only the victory of the current occupant of the Elysée could guarantee the growing anchoring of Paris to a European Union which in this dramatic situation has been able to find its own foreign policy and its basic unity, also thanks to the Macron himself. Who, just re-elected – and without the problem of a new re-election – would have extraordinary strength, not only to carry out reforms in his country, but to play a decisive role in the negotiation phase of the war that will sooner or later open.
Macron in fact this month – also because he is the current president of the Union – seemed to be the man with the best chance of speaking with the Kremlin, although certainly not through his fault he was always empty-handed, which does not nullify the impression that the man obviously has his own inclination in the most difficult international situations.
Here, then, is that the question that many pose, that of the super broker, could be resolved precisely with a formal or informal task of mediation between Ukraine and Russia when the weapons will finally be silent, and subsequently in the phase of redesigning a new world order.
All things that Marine Le Pen, who has always been fascinated by Tsar Vladimir Putin like all reactionaries, would not be able to do. The leader of the French right, no longer extreme due to the presence of an ultrà like Zemmour, but still the Bourbon and reactionary right, already defeated twice (first by François Hollande, then by Macron), begins to have something dusty on her. Something that the third defeat should eventually encrust.
The left, fragmented and always querelleuse, will continue to search for itself in the labyrinths of its own self-referentiality but out of the possibility of winning. And ultimately from there will come the decisive support for Emmanuel Macron, the man who has the keys to a victory that after that of the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz in Germany would determine a different climate in the Old Continent, based on a reformist axis with long years of work in front of him.
Tomorrow France is speaking for the first indications and Europe is holding its breath because its future really passes through Paris as never before.
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